2020 US presidential election

On November 3, the 59th U.S. presidential election will be held. Every election eve is a special moment, reflecting events since the previous election and the mood of a population. The United States is about to play out a political seesaw that is more uncertain than ever.

Against a backdrop of political, economic, social and health crises, the massive mobilization of the electorate could tip the balance in a country where around a third of citizens are not registered to vote. The challenges facing the two major parties are numerous, but above all they must convince their electoral base to take part in the ballot and attract voters with no political affiliation to vote for their candidate. The latter are particularly targeted by online media campaigns, especially if they come from pivotal states that could swing the final outcome.

The question of voter age also comes into play. In 2016, senior citizens over the age of 64 turned out to vote at a rate of around 70%. By comparison, turnout among 18-34 year-olds was 48%, but recent events predict a significant increase in the mobilization of young Americans at the ballot box. The management of the pandemic, which wreaked havoc among the elderly, 25% of whom were already living in precarious conditions, has brought the issue of access to healthcare for the poorest back into the campaign rhetoric of the candidates.

The participation of African-Americans will also be scrutinized. Hilary Clinton’s predominantly Democratic candidacy mobilized the black American community less than in previous presidential elections. The context of racial tensions could, however, accentuate their involvement in the electoral process.

Beyond numbers and statistics, symbols are great catalysts for change. On the centenary of American women’s right to vote, 2020 will see the nomination of Kamala Harris, the first black woman to run as a candidate’s running mate. She had paved the way a few years earlier with her election to the post of Attorney General of California and to the US Senate.

The parties involved intend to make history “once again”.

Bibliography on Renouvaud

The BCUL holds many documents on the political history of the United States. Here is aselection of related documents, including some recently published titles:

• Being American today: the stakes of a presidential electionby Didier Combeau, 2020. The most recent of the selection. This book offers an overview of domestic politics in the United States, analyzing seven themes that are both hotly debated and at stake in the upcoming elections, including immigration, discrimination, abortion, violence and the environment. The author uses numerous historical references to help decipher the contours of current American identity.

• American Presidents: from Washington to Obamaby André Kaspi and Hélène Harter, 2012. This study lists the presidents who, over 225 years, have marked the history of the United States, describing the evolution of the presidential office, political processes and presidential election campaigns. It traces the path from an America of less than 4 million inhabitants in 1776 to the superpower we know today.
  
  
• Hacking the Electorate: how Campaigns Perceive Votersedited by Eitan D. Hersh, 2015. Adapting to different audiences, raising issues, capturing expectations and convincing voters used to rely on the intuition of politicians and campaign teams. With the advent of new technologies, electoral strategies have taken on a more systematic and predictive bent, relying on Big data to target voter preferences and profiles. This book analyzes the methodological evolution that has become an integral part of the American political landscape, as well as the new communication tools whose impact is reshaping election campaigns.
  
  
• History of American Presidential Elections: 1789-2008by Gil Troy, Arthur M. Schlesinger Jr, Fred L. Israël, 2012. This 3-volume introductory work offers a comprehensive overview of presidential election campaigns, conventions and candidates since George Washington. It includes state-by-state voting results, electoral maps and statistical data covering every presidential election in U.S. history.

• Generation Ocasio Cortez: the new American activistsby Mathieu Magnaudeix, 2020. Also released this year, this book tells the story of young American adults in their twenties and thirties, like Alexandra Ocasio Cortez, born into a period of permanent crisis. Both heirs to the social advances won by previous generations, they are confronted with the upheavals their country has undergone over the last twenty years. Sometimes disillusioned, but always committed, they claim to be left-wing and are shaking up the traditional Democratic Party, determined to reinvent methods of collective action far removed from the cult of the charismatic leader.
  
  
• Pivotal Tuesdays: Four Elections That Shaped the Twentieth CenturyO’Mara Margaret, 2017. A study of four 20th-century presidential elections at key moments in American history: the arrival of industrial capitalism, the hope of Franklin Roosevelt’s “New Deal”, the civil rights struggles of the 1960s and the arrival of the “New Democrats” represented by Bill Clinton. The author examines the reasons that led the candidates to victory or defeat, and analyzes the effects of the campaigns on the years of presidency that followed.